The 27-year-old Bellinger is one of the more exciting free agents this offseason, as he has flashed impressive looks in the past but has been in a terrible slump in recent years. Bellinger hit 111 home runs and stole 39 bases in his first three seasons from 2017 to 2019. He walked in 12.4% of his plate appearances, hitting .278/.368/.559 for a wRC+ of 140, which was 40% better than league average that season. That includes the 2019 season, when he hit 47 home runs, swiped 15 bags and produced a wRC+ of 161. He also averaged 7.7 wins per FanGraphs. He was awarded the National League Most Valuable Player award for that season.
Bellinger slipped a bit from those heights in the shortened 2020 season. He hit .239/.333/.455, still above average while finishing with a wRC+ of 112, but a significant drop from previous seasons. An ill-advised party in the postseason led to a shoulder injury that required surgery, and he hasn’t looked like himself since. He hit just .165/.240/.302 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 47, then regressed a bit in 2022 but still finished at .210/.265/.389, wRC+ of 83.
Despite those lean years, Bellinger’s salary continued to rise for a number of reasons. He reached arbitration for the first time in 2020 as a Super Two player during his MVP campaign. It quickly rose to $11.5M in his first year of eligibility and was reduced in 2021, but still productive, to $16.1M for 2021. performance in the previous season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz Another jump to $18.1MM was projected for 2023, but the Dodgers decided to cut the bait and non-tender Bellinger, sending him to free agency. With Bellinger now moving to a new club, they must chart a new course in center field for 2023.
Despite Bellinger’s rough few years, he still received strong interest as a free agent. At one point. Heyman reported As there were 11 teams on the table. This happened for two reasons: one was what Bellinger wanted. One year agreement To return to form and return to free agency in search of a better deal. That opens the door for many suitors who are typically wary of long-term commitments but will gladly take a short-term bet on a player with MVP upside. Bellinger, with his speed and excellent center field defense, provides a good floor as well. In the year Despite the subpar lineup in 2022, he still produced 1.7 fWAR with 17 base steals and an above-average six outs in center field.
The Cubs are attached to Bellinger. A few weeks ago And give it a lot of meaning as a resting place. The rebuilding team had a lot of characters playing in the midfield this year, incl Christopher Morrell, Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, Nelson Velazquez And Michael Hermosillo. All of these players were loaded on the field except for Morel, who is a good defender in nature and produced poor defensive numbers on grass. The Cubs have some impressive outfield prospects who could fill that role long-term, but Bellinger and Ian Happ They’re set to become free agents after a year, which means there’s plenty of long-term runway. Seiya SuzukiHe’s the only outfielder with a long lead until 2026.
Financially, there are no real obstacles for the Cubs either. Bellinger’s contract pushes his cap hit below $140 million for next year Directory resource. They had $143M in payroll on Opening Day 2022 Coat baseball contractsBut they’ve topped $203M in recent seasons and should still have plenty of room to run.
The Cubs have been rebuilding in recent years, but they could be aggressive this season in an attempt to get back into contention in 2023. Whether they succeed or not, Bellinger could be valuable to them. As mentioned, Bellinger can still be a valuable hitter even if his bat is not back to previous levels. If he and his team are playing well, that’s a good result for everyone involved. If he’s playing well and the club is bad, his short-term contract means he should be flipped at the transfer deadline. As mentioned, while Bellinger doesn’t really bounce back, he can be a valuable player with his glove work and on-base work, which means he could still be an interesting trade chip regardless.
John Heyman of the New York Post First it was going to the Cubs with Bellinger. Jeff Passan of ESPN He was originally guaranteed $17.5 million. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times He originally reported his $12.5M salary structure with $5M in co-options.
