Will gold rise to $3,000 by the end of next year? Will 2023’s forecast of a decline in the first half and a rise in the second half reverse itself? Will oil make a surprise rally in the second half of the year?
Those are all going to be big surprises, aren’t they?
But shouldn’t we be used to being surprised by now? Shouldn’t we even fight for them? Indeed, as we bid farewell to 2022, one thing is clear: it was a year of “unlimited surprises.”
So he writes Real money Doug Cass, famous Hedge fund A manager who has written his annual “Surprises” list in it for several decades Daily diary on Real Money Pro.
2023 Amazing things are revealed
For those willing to hear a different — anti-group think — view, Kass has several bets on what could happen in the next 12 months, including Elon Musk saving Twitter at Tesla’s expense. (TSLA) – Get a free reportShocking Apple (APL) – Get a free report Consolidation, a big fall in Bitcoin (~ BTCUSD) Price and those predicted jumps in gold and oil.
“The reason and why I do this exercise every year is because of the incredible accuracy that I’ve come across in 2022 – my mostly negative surprises save traders and investors a lot of money, and alternatively, having some of my surprises in one’s portfolio can save traders and investors a lot of money.” He could,” Cass wrote in the 4,000-word-plus. “Surprises” introduction. “The purpose of my annual list is to get readers to think deeply about a variety of issues.”
It all started 21 years ago, when Kass was compiling a list of potential surprises for next year, taking a page out of the playbook of his friend and former Morgan Stanley chief investment strategist, Byron Wynn. Cass spends about a month on the list, with about 40 surprises, usually about 15, but this year about 10, with five “also-rans.”
Last year list accuracy
How accurate was Cass in his predictions for 2022? Four of his five key predictions turned out to be correct, such as the bet that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell would turn. Hawk But you’ll have little chance of messing with inflation this year (any active investor who buys groceries can attest to that) or 2016. After a rally to new highs in early 2022, the stock market will spiral (enough).
Cass also wrote in December 2021 that next year Amazon (AMZN) – Get a free report Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk set records for the biggest single-year loss of personal wealth, value stocks materially outperformed growth stocks, and China’s economy has soared even relative to its low estimates at the time.
Of course, Cass had some predictions, especially political ones, that were not considered.
But, as Cass explains, the real purpose of his “Surprises” — a trip to read — is practical, “to put a portion of my portfolio in consideration of other events and potentially generate a large profit.” In small deposits/investments”
Kass also reminds readers that his “Surprises” are not predictions, but events that have a greater than 50% chance of happening – but are more likely to be 25% or less than the consensus expectation. “In other words,” says Kass, “my surprises are the anti-‘group smell.'” He wrote.
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