By a large 30-point margin, Americans say earlier this month that Republicans’ long-running battle to elect a new House speaker is a sign that “Congress is doing as it should” (25%) rather than “Congress is working as it should” (25%). They say it is. New Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
And that could be a source of trouble ahead as the United States breaches its debt limit and barrels toward another dramatic showdown on Capitol Hill in the coming weeks.
Even among Republicans, a look at the recent speaker tussle — as the survey says “15 rounds of voting — the most in 100 years — because of opposition from a small group of Republicans” — shows that Congress is dysfunctional (48%). than practical (37%).
As the United States officially hit its debt ceiling on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she must take “extraordinary steps” to avoid a financial meltdown and urged congressional leaders to raise the nation’s debt ceiling “quickly.” (Raising the cap would allow the federal government to cover spending it has already authorized to avert a major devastation that could wipe out $15 trillion in assets and cost up to 6 million jobs, one of the people said.) The latest estimate.)
However, conservative House Republicans – with their success in prolonging the speakership battle and the eventual winner, Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California; It is reported that it was done to protect their votes – They are asking for huge budget cuts to make the government pay off past debts. By contrast, the Biden administration has said it won’t negotiate and is instead insisting on “clean” increases, the kind Republicans approved three times during Donald Trump’s presidency.
A new Yahoo News/YouTube survey of 1,538 American adults conducted from January 12 to 16 found that nearly twice as many support Biden’s position (“A traditional ‘clean’ debt limit vote without requiring new policy,” 45%) than support the right-wing Republican position (“New policy without debt.” -In connection with the limited vote” by 24%). Predictably, Democrats prefer Biden’s position by a wide margin (61 percent to 19 percent) — but again, even Republicans don’t particularly favor future debt-limit wrangling, with 35 percent voting pure and 36 percent preferring to attach policy questions. .
Additionally, conservative budget cut requests may lose more public favor once conservatives announce exactly which federal programs they want to cut. Of the choices offered in the election – which Reflect on the latest report on possible GOP interests – “Aid for Ukraine in war with Russia” (44% in favor) Reducing federal spending is the only proposal that even has the majority’s support. The rest—cutting spending on the U.S. military (22%), Social Security (10%) or Medicare (9%)—aren’t even close.
And while a majority of Republicans favor cutting aid to Ukraine (63%), a smaller share wants to cut spending on the military (15%), Social Security (12%) or Medicare (12%). It is among Americans in general.
Further complicating matters for House conservatives is that many Americans don’t get the debt limit right — but the more they learn, the less they want Congress to keep it. Less than half of US adults (42%), for example, correctly understand that the debt limit should be raised “to pay for the federal government’s spending that Congress has authorized”; More likely either America would regularly raise the debt limit to “allow for new federal spending” (25%) or I’m not sure (33%).
Given this, it’s not surprising that when Yahoo News and YouGov randomly asked half of pollsters whether they “favor or oppose raising the U.S. debt limit” — with no additional context — more said than not (40%). (28%) liked it. However, when half were asked the same question after hearing a description of dire consequences — “destroying America’s past debts” and “possible failure” of not paying “Social Security benefits and military pay” — the numbers were completely reversed. 45% now say they favor raising the limit and only 24% say they oppose it.
Meanwhile, a third of Americans say they’re “not sure” how to respond to questions about the debt limit — a challenge to GOP hardball tactics if the U.S. defaults and economists suggest there’s more room to grow if it gets worse. Predictions will come true.
The bottom line is that Speaker McCarthy has his work cut out for him moving forward. For now, large numbers of Americans (43%) and Republicans (47%) are undecided whether they view him favorably or unfavorably, and similarly undecided whether they approve or disapprove of his job as speaker (45% and 47). % not sure, respectively).
However, McCarthy’s initial evaluations among all US adults – 20% favorable versus 37% unfavorable; 24% approve and 31% disagree – generally negative. And Republicans and Republican-leaning libertarians were split on whether the House should elect McCarthy (32%) or someone else (31%) as speaker.
At the same time, large numbers of Americans disapprove of most reports that Californians have “persuaded them to participate in their own party,” including giving anti-McCarthy seats on powerful committees (42% against, 24%); Allowing any member to force votes on amendments to unlimited spending bills (42% opposed, 23% in favor). and allowing any member to vote to remove the speaker at any time (37% against, 30% in favor).
Other reported concessions, however, are more popular: posting legislation at least 72 hours before a vote so lawmakers have time to review it (68% in favor, 10% opposed); create a special committee to investigate the Justice Department and the FBI (51% favor, 27% oppose); and ending the pandemic-era congressional election by proxy (46% in favor, 29% against) that allowed members of Congress to vote without being in Washington, D.C.
McCarthy’s strategy for success will be to make the extremist members of his party unyielding to their petty populist demands. Following the recent House Speaker race, 26 percent of American Republicans say they “have the right priorities” — down 5 points from late October — but more than twice as many (54%) say they are “not paying enough attention to America’s real problems.” . He said.
The view of Democrats isn’t that bad — 30% “have the right priorities” versus 52% “not paying enough attention to America’s real problems” — with no significant changes since August.
Similarly, Americans are now 20 points more likely than Republicans to “hurt” the other party (48%) than to “pass legislation” (28%) — and just 6 points more likely than Democrats to say so. by 42% to 36% respectively).
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The Yahoo News survey was conducted using a nationally representative sample of 1,538 US adults who were interviewed online between January 12 and 16, 2023. The sample is stratified by gender, age, race, education, turnout in the 2020 election, and presidential election, at baseline. Party ID and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets are from the 2019 American Community Survey. Base party identification is the most recent answer given by a respondent before March 15, 2022, and corresponds to the estimated distribution at that time (32% Democratic, 27% Republican). Respondents were selected from a YouGov opt-in panel to be representative of all US adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.7%.
